Vehicle Transitions - Suggestions
Overview
Section titled “Overview”Suggestions for developing Vehicle Transition Sets
Section titled “Suggestions for developing Vehicle Transition Sets”Users may wish to define a series of Vehicle Transition Sets to test sensitivity across technology uptake rates, policy ambition, and fleet composition, which in turn affect outputs such as vehicle operating costs, emissions, and pavement loading. Consider setting up the following transition sets:
Baseline (No Transition)
Section titled “Baseline (No Transition)”Assumes the current fleet mix continues with only gradual efficiency improvements. ICE vehicles dominate throughout the analysis period, with negligible uptake of electric vehicles.
Gradual Electrification
Section titled “Gradual Electrification”A steady, market-driven shift from ICE to electric vehicles over time. EVs reach moderate penetration (e.g. 30–50%) by the end of the analysis period, reflecting current policy trajectories.
Accelerated Electrification
Section titled “Accelerated Electrification”A faster transition driven by strong policy support and cost reductions. EVs become the dominant vehicle type (e.g. 70–90%) within 15–20 years, with rapid decline in ICE shares.
Delayed Transition
Section titled “Delayed Transition”Minimal change in the fleet for the first part of the analysis period, followed by a late but sharper uptake of EVs. Useful for testing sensitivity to slow early adoption.
Mixed Technology Transition
Section titled “Mixed Technology Transition”A diversified pathway where ICE vehicles are gradually replaced by a combination of EVs, hybrids, and possibly alternative fuels (e.g. hydrogen), rather than a single dominant technology.
Policy-Constrained (Low Adoption)
Section titled “Policy-Constrained (Low Adoption)”Assumes barriers to adoption (cost, infrastructure, policy uncertainty). EV uptake remains low, with ICE vehicles still forming the majority at the end of the period.
High-Performance / Low-Emission Scenario
Section titled “High-Performance / Low-Emission Scenario”Represents an ambitious decarbonisation pathway with rapid electrification and improvements in vehicle efficiency, weight, and performance characteristics.